As we approach the Iowa Caucus, there has been a lot of talk regarding the recent surge of Rick Santorum. Santorum was in the single digits for most of 2011, but as we enter the new year, the former Pennsylvania senator has jumped up with some polls having him in 3rd place and a real chance to win on Tuesday.
But the question that’s holding Santorum back among a number of voters is if he can beat President Barack Obama in November. Doubters are everywhere. Candidate Rick Perry even said that Santorum loses elections. I think these people forgot what really happened in 2008. “Obama fever” was running all across the country. People were convinced that he was going to be different from typical politicians. He was practically viewed as a savior. Glenn Beck even put this little song out there.
The reality of the Obama administration has told a different story. He hasn’t fixed our economy. It’s gotten worse. Our debt is out of control. His healthcare plan isn’t very popular and might be tossed out as the Supreme Court is going to take a look at it. The only thing he can really hang his hat on is that during this time in office, we’ve gotten our troops out of Iraq. And there’s not much to say that that wouldn’t have happened under different leadership.
McCain was also a terrible candidate. While I’ve been a conservative as long as I can remember, I couldn’t bring myself to vote for him. He was too moderate. He had to bring on Sarah Palin to encourage the right-wing part of his base. That felt like pandering to some out there. It’s probably safe to say that the majority of people who voted for him did it just because he was the Republican candidate. McCain did about as bad as a Republican candidate could do in an election with no incumbent with a spectacular history.
So how would Santorum do? Well let’s start with the 2008 map. After all, if he’s going to do as poorly as some are suggesting, we might as well start with the most recent election with a lousy Republican candidate.
But before we do that, we need to consider one thing. We need to change the values of the states on the map as they’ve changed since 2008. A number of states that helped Obama in 2008 aren’t as valuable in 2012 and a number of states he lost gained votes. Texas, South Carolina, Georgia, Utah, and Arizona are all worth more this time around while Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, and Ohio all lost votes. So before we do anything, we have to take Obama down a peg from what he accomplished in 2008.
After adjusting the map to 2012 numbers, Santorum gets 179 votes instead of the 173 McCain got. Again, this is assuming that he will do just as well as McCain did in 2008 – and I’ll say it again, that was pretty poor. While 179 isn’t enough to win, that’s just the beginning. So let’s start looking at how Santorum in 2012 is different from McCain in 2008.
Santorum is from Pennsylvania. On top of that, Pennsylvania is a state that, in 2010, elected Republican governor Tom Corbett. Also, Obama had 55% of the vote in that state in 2008. So between the fact that Obama’s approval rating is down, the latest state-wide election went to a Republican, and that Santorum is from that state, there’s a good chance he’ll win it. There’s another 20. That means with Santorum as the candidate, he’s at 199. Still not enough to win. But we’re not done.
Pennsylvania wasn’t the only state to get a Republican governor in 2010. Ohio did as well with their election of John Kasich. While it was a slim margin of victory, it does suggest that that state is more conservative than it was in 2008. Let’s also keep in mind that Obama only had 51% in that state in the last election. So there are another 18 votes. That brings Santorum to 217.
Wisconsin did the same as Ohio and Pennsylvania. Their economy is actually on the up-and-up under their Republican leadership. That could mean 10 more votes for Santorum. Make it 227.
North Carolina was practically 50/50 in the last election. The fact that that’s part of the “Bible Belt,” Santorum’s strong stance on social issues could appeal to the voters of that state more than McCain and Santorum could pick it up. Count another 15. We’re now at 242.
Virginia was 53/46 for Obama in 2008 and is in the “Bible Belt” as well. So they’re not too different from North Carolina. That’s another 13 votes, bringing the total 255.
Indiana is also in play as Obama only got 50% of the vote in that state. With Obama’s drop in popularity, Santorum just has to do as well in that state as McCain did. That’s 11 more. We’re at 266 now.
Florida’s another state that has the potential to be in play. Obama had 51% of the vote there. With Marco Rubio’s name being tossed around as a potential VP candidate, that state could be won as well. That could help out in Florida. The 29 votes from that state push him to 295, well above the 270 that’s needed.
There are other states that it’s questionable if Obama can win this time around for no other reason than the fact that he’s not the “Messiah” he was in 2008. He had less than 55% of the vote in Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. They total 43 votes. These states come into play just because people are starting to notice that Obama is "The Emperor with no clothes.”
Another state that has a slight chance of going to Santorum is Michigan. That state, like Ohio and Pennsylvania, went from a Democratic governor to a Republican governor in 2010. While it would be tough for Santorum to win there, a strong showing could force Obama to invest resources there that might have otherwise gone to other states. And if Romney was the VP selection instead, that would make the state even more likely to go red in November. That’s 16 votes.
The only areas where Santorum might do worse in 2012 than McCain did in 2008 are places like Hawaii, Washington, California, DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. But none of the candidates are going to win those states.
He might also not fair as well in Arizona as some of the other candidates. McCain most likely won that state since he’s from there. But then trading Arizona for Pennsylvania is a gain for the Republican Party (Arizona is worth 11 votes).
At this point, some people may think I’m being overly generous to Santorum in some of these cases. But let’s not forget my starting point: McCain in 2008, a horrible year for the Republican Party.
If Santorum won every state that he has the potential to win, that’s 354 votes (for those doing the math at home, I’m also adding in the one vote Obama got from Nebraska in ‘08). That’s 84 more than he needs.So even if we toss out some of these states where him winning isn’t very likely, he can still win the overall election.
As I suggested earlier, Santorum also can do something that McCain couldn’t and a number of the other candidates haven’t been able to do: Energize the conservative base. Romney’s record takes him left of what many had been hoping for in the Republican candidate. Conservatives detest Ron Paul’s foreign policy. Newt Gingrich has so many skeletons in his closet, he has all he needs to start a haunted house. The fact that McCain couldn’t get conservatives excited is the biggest thing that hurt him. They didn’t want to go out and vote for him, donate to his campaign, or volunteer. That’s not the case with Santorum.
Let’s not forget that it was the efforts of the Tea Party that helped the GOP gain control of the House and gain seats in the Senate in 2010. Were they looking for “Electability” or “Middle of the road?” Nope.
Can he appeal to the middle as much as some of the other candidates? No. But will the middle donate to anyone that’s running? Probably not. Keep in mind that with the economy like it is, disposable income is down, meaning a person would really have to believe in a candidate to donate.
Will the middle just vote for Obama instead? Given how I have people who volunteered for the Obama campaign in 2008 telling me there’s no way they’ll vote for him now, I wouldn’t bet on it. The middle will most likely stay home or give the Republican candidate a try for the sake of change.
The fact of the matter is that Rick Santorum can win an election against Obama in 2012. If a person doesn’t like something about his platform, that’s one thing. But saying he can’t win just isn’t a good excuse for supporting another candidate.
Besides, if “Electability” and “Caters to the middle” were the most important characteristics, McCain would have won in 2008 and Ronald Reagan would have never gotten a second term in 1984.
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